YasuoAkikaze: Let's say I have 100 e-scratch cards. (I'm using -both- as an example. Though the rate for the cards are most likely higher than the papel shop, still, i should think their systems are similar, possibly exact.) I scratch about 40 cards, and I get the rare. But that's because no one else was scratching. Now, say, I was scratching with another person on their own account with 20 of their own and I had 20 of my own. Whoever scratched the 39th card on their last one was the unlucky one, as the next one, number 40, would get the rare. See where I'm going with this? So many people are Papel Shopping that, once again, you could just be extremely unlucky and contributing to getting someone elses rare, in which, they happen to get lucky number yadayada and take the papel rare for their own. Resetting the amount of papel shop rolls required for -someone- to get a rare. This is all a theory, but I figured I should state the possible?
Let's say I have 100 e-scratch cards. (I'm using -both- as an example. Though the rate for the cards are most likely higher than the papel shop, still, i should think their systems are similar, possibly exact.)
I scratch about 40 cards, and I get the rare. But that's because no one else was scratching. Now, say, I was scratching with another person on their own account with 20 of their own and I had 20 of my own. Whoever scratched the 39th card on their last one was the unlucky one, as the next one, number 40, would get the rare. See where I'm going with this?
So many people are Papel Shopping that, once again, you could just be extremely unlucky and contributing to getting someone elses rare, in which, they happen to get lucky number yadayada and take the papel rare for their own. Resetting the amount of papel shop rolls required for -someone- to get a rare.
This is all a theory, but I figured I should state the possible?
I think this is true. And I too play according to this theory. I try to do a lot of plays all at once in the hope that I may hit that lucky one. I also like to play at times when the server is quiet. I won my one and only rare at around 4am EST, when hardly anyone was on. Maybe there's some truth to your theory :P
mrtrecon: Update : 900 tries , 5 seen red papel , 4 aquired : - Rosy cheeks for Nuri - Rosy cheeks for Kz - Pink Blush for Az - illusion spec for Ceci Well , i think i am a lucky ones , seen 3 red papel and won 2 rare item in 2 hours , don't know what to say now
Update : 900 tries , 5 seen red papel , 4 aquired :
- Rosy cheeks for Nuri
- Rosy cheeks for Kz
- Pink Blush for Az
- illusion spec for Ceci
Well , i think i am a lucky ones , seen 3 red papel and won 2 rare item in 2 hours , don't know what to say now
woooow so lucky!!! specs for ceci.. my dream haha. grats :]
Rioja:Sorry, an admin posting a screenshot of himself winning a rare just doesn't really "do it" for me in terms of "Papel shop works".
How about these then? Of my data collecting, these are my 430th and 697th plays:
WnSandsBabe:Something has changed. Since ntreev didn't lower odds, then let's say ogp set theirs higher.
Loki's not ruled this idea out yet, and numerous people have said there'd been a notable rate increase from the third set onwards on Alba18.
cpm5757:I don't have a big problem with rares actually becoming really rare again. Was there anyone that DIDN'T win lots of feathers, gas masks, crowns, Winged Headbands on A18?
That wasn't so much a rate issue as it was infinite pang appearing on the server all of a sudden to create a torrential amount of supply.
pathiean:Well with these drop rates most are getting im expecting to see 10m rare prices in shops once they open back up.
I suspect blushes will be buyable on the basis that they're not incredible. Specs, on the other hand, you'll find one or two selling for low prices because the sellers got lucky and have no idea of their real value. If any others get sold at all it'll be around the price cap, though I suspect the majority of specs will never be sold, only traded for specs of a different character. As things stand I'm still convinced that the average generation cost of any pair of specs is in excess of 3 million pang.
YasuoAkikaze:From what I've read, tons of people just seem to be having some bad luck. The fact that it is a lottery makes it quite a high probability of not winning. A lot of people seem to have a problem with this? It's called a risk, a gamble, a roll of the die.
I always find arguments like this, while largely true, rather insulting. You don't need to repeatedly clarify what luck is, people aren't that stupid.
On that note though, we do get mixed messages about this. Around 20 hours ago Takeda in Free1 was commenting to unlucky 600+ players that "there's no point complaining, you've still got 3 months" as if those three months held any degree of certainty that they'd get a pair of specs.
Edit: Just crunched some numbers. At my previous estimate of a 0.011111...% chance of specs (not rares, specs) and assuming someone plays 9000 times (90 days) at a cost of 4.5 million pang less coupons, they stand a 37% chance of not getting a single pair. That's what frightens me - for that kind of investment, nobody deserves that.
It's also worth noting that all Loki has said is that the developers say the average rare set is out for 2-3 (in our Alba18 experience, just over 3). I've mentioned it to Takeda already, but that's no guarantee that the Illusion Specs will! For all we know they could change the rares every other week in order to speed through the previous Albatross18-available stuff and get to the truly newer stuff. I won't comment on how the potentially extremely limited tenure would provide another argument for raising the rates.
mrtrecon:Well , i think i am a lucky ones, 900 tries , 5 seen red papel , 4 aquired
Naw, I think I'm the luckiest. Of the 24 available rares, I couldn't care less about 23 of them. The one I did care about, I won yesterday.
Miraglyth: Loki's not ruled this idea out yet, and numerous people have said there'd been a notable rate increase from the third set onwards on Alba18. Edit: Just crunched some numbers. At my previous estimate of a 0.011111...% chance of specs (not rares, specs) and assuming someone plays 9000 times (90 days) at a cost of 4.5 million pang less coupons, they stand a 37% chance of not getting a single pair. That's what frightens me - for that kind of investment, nobody deserves that. It's also worth noting that all Loki has said is that the developers say the average rare set is out for 2-3 (in our Alba18 experience, just over 3). I've mentioned it to Takeda already, but that's no guarantee that the Illusion Specs will! For all we know they could change the rares every other week in order to speed through the previous Albatross18-available stuff and get to the truly newer stuff. I won't comment on how the potentially extremely limited tenure would provide another argument for raising the rates.
Allow me to rule it out then: Our developers have confirmed that the rates of Papel Shop have never been permanently changed in any version. So although a publisher could conceivably run a temporary event, that's something that you'd obviously be aware of as it would be announced. The old publisher couldn't just do this behind the developer's back either.
If your previous estimate held true (and again, may be higher, may be lower), I would concur with those numbers. Here's the thing though, nobody ever said this feature was designed to make it possible to everyone to get a rare--let alone a rare they want.
In a lottery, there are far more losses than wins. Obviously the rates in Papel Shop are better than the rates of hitting the Mega Millions, but conceptually it's important to understand that we're not honestly expecting someone to spend the 4.5 million (by Mira's estimates) Pang to see the rare they want by playing the average number of turns it would take. We're expecting rares to come from those who get lucky and win it in less than the average number of turns. If you want to just brute force it and play every day, that's certainly your prerogative though.
I'd also like to add that regardless of the rate of *seeing* a rare, the rate of *winning* a rare is what is fixed. Theoretically, we could set it so that you saw a red bag on every other spin on average; you still wouldn't win any sooner than you would if you saw the red bag once every thousand spins on average. I'm honestly not certain how the mechanic works for displaying premium and rare items, but I am certain that the rate of winning is independent from the rate of seeing.
From Tomcik
GMLoki:Allow me to rule it out then: Our developers have confirmed that the rates of Papel Shop have never been permanently changed in any version.
Ta.
GMLoki:Here's the thing though, nobody ever said this feature was designed to make it possible to everyone to get a rare--let alone a rare they want.
This feature was designed to make it possible for everyone to get a rare - but probable that they would not even if they unloaded a frankly unbelievable amount of resources into it, and even if their subsequent lack of luck renders them, in gaming terms, "gimped".
I understand how this works (so the repeated explanations aren't necessary), I just don't like it in the slightest. It's actually why I stopped playing Albatross18 back after winning Black Papel. I get the message loud and clear that Ntreev disagrees with me on this one though. They like an unfair game, and it's theirs to run so that won't get fixed.
GMLoki:In a lottery, there are far more losses than wins.
I'm sure you didn't mean it this way, but I'm a tad insulted.
GMLoki:we're not honestly expecting someone to spend the 4.5 million (by Mira's estimates) Pang to see the rare they want by playing the average number of turns it would take. We're expecting rares to come from those who get lucky and win it in less than the average number of turns
Well, when Lounge shops come up, let's see how many of "the rares to come" make it to shops, eh?
And that 4.5 million isn't "the price to get the rare they want", was my point.
GMLoki:If you want to just brute force it and play every day, that's certainly your prerogative though.
It is and will likely remain the only way to get certain rares (well, until they disappear forever! ), because their supply is so limited that they will not exist in the market. And if they do, you can be sure that haxpang will put a very quick end to that.
That aside though, why do you think people play the Papel Shop? I'd hope nobody's in it for the replay tapes.
As far as the shops go and the supply of rares, there shouldn't be any change in availability, because there hasn't been any change in the ability of players to earn the rares. Now at this point I'm going to admit my own ignorance of A18's history, but to the best of my understanding, if you have enough Pang you're generally going to be able to find a seller for what you're trying to buy. Clearly there *is* a finite number of rares, which becomes fixed as soon as the set is removed from the papel shop, but even in the fledgling days of our beta I saw specs for sale.
The rate is very low, yes, I certainly agree. It's equally low on all servers though, and it seems to work out for them. I thought for a minute about the difference population would make, but I realized just as quickly that although a smaller population will create less rares, it will also consume less rares.
So in terms of the impact on the economy, I'm afraid I just don't see it at this point in time. Though, given the current supply of Pang available, I think it would be reasonable to suggest that we increase the length of time this set is available just to ensure that we aren't artifically shorting the supply of specs on the market due to the Pang cut.
I don't know a lot about scratchy cards yet, but my understanding is that the rates are significantly higher to accommodate the fact that players cannot trade the rares won, so it *is* expected that the individual is able to "go it on their own" so to speak.
GMLoki:Now at this point I'm going to admit my own ignorance of A18's history, but to the best of my understanding, if you have enough Pang you're generally going to be able to find a seller for what you're trying to buy.
Excepting Black Papel and Illusion Specs. To my understanding most of the high-rank players who got those did so by spending a ton of time on Christmas "Find the GM" events at cost of sleep, whereupon they'd get something of their choice.
Particularly relevant for Blapel as it's impossible to "find a seller" - Black Papel cannot be sold. You must "brute force" that one. It is, unless you plan to do similar events, the only way to get it. And considering it was the first "main" Papel Shop rare (and that this was an entire season before "psq" was even conceived) I wonder what that says about the original intent behind the system whose base odds have, we now understand, never changed.
Edit: Amusingly you later justified the likely increased odds of Scratchy cards by their inability to be traded...
GMLoki:I thought for a minute about the difference population would make, but I realized just as quickly that although a smaller population will create less rares, it will also consume less rares.
Two things worth taking into account are that I believe there's a higher proportion of "casual" type players in a larger server that would, if lucky, look to turn a profit on the rare they wouldn't otherwise use to upgrade that new clubset they got. More importantly though, our "mini-version of their economy" is of course that much more susceptible to hacking. Even feathers, made abundant by an infinity of haxpang, shot up from ~50,000 to over 300,000 (700,000 for Kooh) quite literally overnight. You saw that happen.
GMLoki:So in terms of the impact on the economy, I'm afraid I just don't see it at this point in time.
So what price do you expect these things to go for, assuming no hackers?
And out of interest, what happens if they strike again?
One time again a red papel but don't got it !!!!
Can I ask if the rares will still be around when the shops open? Im asking this as I would like to see the effect on the ecconomy that they may have before the rares are removed from papel shop. Due to the high number of people complaining, i think it would only be right to be able to see the rares in the shops for a month or so. This way ntreev may either say... I told you so or they will start to realise there is a problem here.
Papel Shop /QUITLost count 2500+ tries one red bag no rares
for me i have to disagree!
just like miraglyth im very insulted
but u expect us pangya players to think that papel shop is like a real lottery like the one with numbers?papel shop is made for fun a MINI LOTTERY..the real lottery is ecard...
i dont know how they operate papel shops but this is outrageous
Quitted papel shop 700 tries no red bag and not playing scratchy anymore because of system lol
IGN:Aya
パンヤ！
Hang on, that's not my stance.
I was insulted through being told "This is a lottery, which means you don't always win." as if I was a moron for not already knowing that,
"pangya is a game that is easy to pick up and play, even for casual players"or so i read somewhere, it means, pangya is no "heavy grindfest game" but just a game for fun.
...... it just turned into a heavy grindfest for me, even more then MS (maple story)im playing constantly to earn as much pang as i can, because i want blushes for Kaz, i even passed a chinese dinner with family to play (pretty lifeless, yeah, but im only 15 so it works, kinda)
and normally i make pang in the PSQ's, thank god you put in the pangya tour, otherwise it would only be ice spa and ice cannon.
this is an average player speaking, wich means, not poor, not rich, average play, juniorAso i guess rookie's are having an even harder time to win one rare...
IGN: Kame Brave[<3]s
I dont believe red bags exsist........
lol people will never be happy no matter what you do for them. we get the game back, shop is open, and the requests to re-release rares seems to be granted but still you get nothing but complaining I don't see any difference in papel shop then before it's just that people dont have millions of pang to burn through so they actually ::gasp:: have to earn it!! think about this people, you could be without a character then you would have something to complain about :P
jordancapri: I don't see any difference in papel shop then before it's just that people dont have millions of pang to burn through
I don't see any difference in papel shop then before it's just that people dont have millions of pang to burn through
much people here are especially talking about tries... 800 tries here... seen 2 red bag... and got 0.... you can have millions of pangs, but you're limited to 100 tries/day...
jordancapri: lol people will never be happy no matter what you do for them. we get the game back, shop is open, and the requests to re-release rares seems to be granted but still you get nothing but complaining I don't see any difference in papel shop then before it's just that people dont have millions of pang to burn through so they actually ::gasp:: have to earn it!! think about this people, you could be without a character then you would have something to complain about :P
LOL ild be pritty scared if we all had "millions" of pang by now...... many of us made tokens b4 shops ended
When youve done 800 + tries then come back and let us know what u still think yea?